New Orleans Pelicans vs Phoenix Suns
Saturday, March 7, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features New Orleans Pelicans (20-44 (11-21)) traveling to take on Phoenix Suns (35-27 (20-13)) at Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ. The Suns hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Pelicans by 6.4 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup.
Suns averages 112.1 points per game, but they face a Pelicans defense that holds opponents to 120.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Pelicans offense puts up 114.9 PPG and faces a Suns defense allowing 111.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Suns will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Suns to win by approximately 6.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Suns winning by 21 to losing by 9.
Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.
Team Comparison
NO Pelicans
Stat
PHX Suns
20-44 (11-21)
Record
35-27 (20-13)
Last 10
114.9
PPG
112.1
120.2
Opp PPG
111.1
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +190 | +6.5 | O 224.5 |
| PHX Phoenix Suns | -230 | -6.5 | U 224.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Mar 6, 5:46 AM
Opening line: -6.5 / O/U 224.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +203 | +6.3 | O 227 |
| PHX Phoenix Suns | -203 | -6.3 | U 227 |
Source: Model Updated: Mar 6, 5:46 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: -6.3
Injury-adjusted total: 227
Our Picks
Spread
Pass
Model: -6.3 | Edge below threshold
Total
Pass
Model: 227 | Edge below threshold
Injury Calculator
Updated Mar 6, 5:46 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model-6.3
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-6.3
Play to-7.2
Total
Base model227
Injury adj.0
Adjusted227
Recent Trends
Suns enters at 35-27 (20-13), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum.
It's been a difficult season for Pelicans at 20-44 (11-21). Traveling to face Suns presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Suns
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 112.1 PPG
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 111.1 PPG — a vulnerability
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Pelicans
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 114.9 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 20-44 (11-21) record this season