Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Memphis Grizzlies (23-36 (11-17)) traveling to take on Minnesota Timberwolves (38-23 (20-11)) at Target Center, Minneapolis, MN. The Timberwolves hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Grizzlies by 6.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup.
On offense, Timberwolves averages 119.1 points per game, which exceeds what the Grizzlies defense typically allows (117.7 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Grizzlies offense puts up 115.7 PPG and faces a Timberwolves defense allowing 114.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Timberwolves will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Timberwolves to win by approximately 3.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Timberwolves winning by 18 to losing by 12.
The market has this game at -13.5, but our model sees value on Grizzlies with a 10.1-point edge. Our line: Timberwolves -3.4. Combined with the total projection of 235 versus the market line of 237.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
MEM Grizzlies
Stat
MIN Timberwolves
23-36 (11-17)
Record
38-23 (20-11)
Last 10
115.7
PPG
119.1
117.7
Opp PPG
114.6
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | +625 | +13.5 | O 237.5 |
| MIN Minnesota Timberwolves | -950 | -13.5 | U 237.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Mar 3, 5:51 AM
Opening line: -13.5 / O/U 237.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | +167 | +3.4 | O 234.8 |
| MIN Minnesota Timberwolves | -167 | -3.4 | U 234.8 |
Source: Model Updated: Mar 3, 5:51 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: -3.4
Injury-adjusted total: 234.8
Our Picks
Spread
Grizzlies (opened at -13.5)
60% Confidence
Play to -4.3
Total
Pass
Model: 234.8 | Edge below threshold
Injury Calculator
Updated Mar 3, 5:51 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model-3.4
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-3.4
Play to-4.3
Total
Base model234.8
Injury adj.0
Adjusted234.8
Recent Trends
Timberwolves enters at 38-23 (20-11), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum.
It's been a difficult season for Grizzlies at 23-36 (11-17). Traveling to face Timberwolves presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Timberwolves
Advantages
- Strong 38-23 (20-11) overall record this season
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 119.1 PPG
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 114.6 PPG — a vulnerability
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 115.7 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 23-36 (11-17) record this season