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NBA

Portland Trail Blazers vs Charlotte Hornets

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NBA matchup features Portland Trail Blazers (29-31 (16-15)) traveling to take on Charlotte Hornets (29-31 (12-16)) at Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC. The Hornets hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Trail Blazers by 5.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Hornets averages 116.2 points per game, but they face a Trail Blazers defense that holds opponents to 118.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Trail Blazers offense puts up 115.8 PPG and faces a Hornets defense allowing 113.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Hornets will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Hornets to win by approximately 3.7 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Hornets winning by 19 to losing by 11. The market has this game at -7.5, but our model sees value on Trail Blazers with a 3.8-point edge. Our line: Hornets -3.7. Combined with the total projection of 232 versus the market line of 229.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

POR Trail Blazers
Stat
CHA Hornets
29-31 (16-15)
Record
29-31 (12-16)
Last 10
115.8
PPG
116.2
118.2
Opp PPG
113.4

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
POR Portland Trail Blazers
+260 +7.5 O 229.5
CHA Charlotte Hornets
-325 -7.5 U 229.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 28, 5:40 AM
Opening line: -7.5 / O/U 229.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
POR Portland Trail Blazers
+135 +3.7 O 232
CHA Charlotte Hornets
-135 -3.7 U 232
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 5:40 AM

Injury-adjusted spread: -3.7

Injury-adjusted total: 232

Our Picks

Spread
Trail Blazers (opened at -7.5)
53% Confidence

Play to -4.6

Total
Pass
Model: 232 | Edge below threshold

Injury Calculator

Updated Feb 28, 5:40 AM

Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.

Trail BlazersAway - 4 players
Deni AvdijaFBack Not SpecifiedNo impact data
Donovan ClinganCIllness Not SpecifiedNo impact data
Shaedon SharpeGLeft Calf StrainNo impact data
Damian LillardGLeft Achilles SurgeryNo impact data

Adjusted Projection

Spread
Base model-3.7
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-3.7
Play to-4.6
Total
Base model232
Injury adj.0
Adjusted232

Recent Trends

Hornets has struggled this season at 29-31 (12-16). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Trail Blazers at 29-31 (16-15). Traveling to face Hornets presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Hornets

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Strong offense averaging 116.2 PPG
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 29-31 (12-16) raises concerns
  • Defense allows 113.4 PPG — a vulnerability

Trail Blazers

Advantages

  • Potent offense averaging 115.8 PPG
  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 29-31 (16-15) record this season

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