Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics
Saturday, February 28, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Brooklyn Nets (15-44 (8-21)) traveling to take on Boston Celtics (39-20 (19-9)) at TD Garden, Boston, MA. The Celtics hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Nets by 15.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup.
Celtics averages 114.4 points per game, but they face a Nets defense that holds opponents to 115.6 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Nets scores 107.0 PPG but faces a Celtics defense that limits opponents to 107.5 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Celtics will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Celtics to win by approximately 6.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Celtics winning by 22 to losing by 8.
The market has this game at -16.5, but our model sees value on Nets with a 9.7-point edge. Our line: Celtics -6.8. Combined with the total projection of 221 versus the market line of 209.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
BKN Nets
Stat
BOS Celtics
15-44 (8-21)
Record
39-20 (19-9)
Last 10
107.0
PPG
114.4
115.6
Opp PPG
107.5
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN Brooklyn Nets | +850 | +17.5 | O 207.5 |
| BOS Boston Celtics | -1450 | -17.5 | U 207.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 27, 5:53 AM
Opening line: -17.5 / O/U 207.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN Brooklyn Nets | +235 | +6.8 | O 221.4 |
| BOS Boston Celtics | -235 | -6.8 | U 221.4 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 4:59 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: -6.8
Injury-adjusted total: 221.4
Our Picks
Spread
Nets (opened at -17.5)
59% Confidence
Play to -7.7
Total
Over (opened at 207.5)
73% Confidence
Play to 220.5
Injury Calculator
Updated Feb 28, 4:59 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model-6.8
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-6.8
Play to-7.7
Total
Base model221.4
Injury adj.0
Adjusted221.4
Recent Trends
Celtics enters at 39-20 (19-9), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum.
It's been a difficult season for Nets at 15-44 (8-21). Traveling to face Celtics presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Celtics
Advantages
- Strong 39-20 (19-9) overall record this season
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 114.4 PPG
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 107.5 PPG — a vulnerability
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Nets
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 107.0 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 15-44 (8-21) record this season