Sacramento Kings vs Houston Rockets
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Sacramento Kings (13-47 (9-20)) traveling to take on Houston Rockets (36-21 (20-7)) at Toyota Center (Houston), Houston, TX. The Rockets hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Kings by 16.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup.
Rockets averages 114.5 points per game, but they face a Kings defense that holds opponents to 121.1 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Kings offense puts up 110.3 PPG and faces a Rockets defense allowing 109.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Rockets will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Rockets to win by approximately 8.6 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Rockets winning by 24 to losing by 6.
The market has this game at -15.5, but our model sees value on Kings with a 6.9-point edge. Our line: Rockets -8.6. Combined with the total projection of 225 versus the market line of 221.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
SAC Kings
Stat
HOU Rockets
13-47 (9-20)
Record
36-21 (20-7)
Last 10
110.3
PPG
114.5
121.1
Opp PPG
109.1
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +650 | +14.5 | O 222.5 |
| HOU Houston Rockets | -1000 | -14.5 | U 222.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 25, 6:02 AM
Opening line: -14.5 / O/U 222.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +250 | +8.6 | O 224.8 |
| HOU Houston Rockets | -250 | -8.6 | U 224.8 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 26, 4:51 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: -8.6
Injury-adjusted total: 224.8
Our Picks
Spread
Kings (opened at -14.5)
56% Confidence
Play to -9.5
Total
Pass
Model: 224.8 | Edge below threshold
Injury Calculator
Updated Feb 26, 4:51 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model-8.6
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-8.6
Play to-9.5
Total
Base model224.8
Injury adj.0
Adjusted224.8
Recent Trends
Rockets enters at 36-21 (20-7), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum.
It's been a difficult season for Kings at 13-47 (9-20). Traveling to face Rockets presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Rockets
Advantages
- Strong 36-21 (20-7) overall record this season
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 114.5 PPG
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 109.1 PPG — a vulnerability
- Turnover-prone at 14.6 per game
Kings
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 110.3 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 13-47 (9-20) record this season