Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

The Phillies have gone 2-12 over the over in games on a 3+ game win streak, a win‑pct of .143 across a 14‑game sample. That stark under‑performance against the over underscores a glaring scoring drought that could keep total lines low.

Both clubs enter with identical rest: one day each, and each is in the middle of a back‑to‑back stretch (home_is_b2b true, away_is_b2b true). The Mets sit at 70‑84 overall (35‑44 at home) while Philadelphia sits at 85‑69 (41‑34 on the road), suggesting comparable fatigue levels despite the shared schedule.

The combined run total sits at 8.8, a full 0.8 runs above the market line of 8.0, matching the model’s projection of 8.8. The market total edge of .8 and the model’s higher total both point to a likely overshoot of the bookmaker’s line, hinting that the over could be attractive if a line were offered.

There is no line and no side; the model passes on this game, strength pass.

Key Matchup Factors:

• Mets has a +0.0 scoring margin edge
• Home court advantage adds 0.3 points for Mets
• Expected scoring: Mets ~4, Phillies ~4 (total ~9)
• Run/puck line pass: model margin below blowout gate

Mets Trends:

• New York Mets is 2-5 ATS on a 3+ game win streak

Phillies Trends:

• The over is 2-12 in Philadelphia Phillies's games on a 3+ game win streak
• Philadelphia Phillies is 15-29 ATS on the road after a win
• Philadelphia Phillies is 6-14 straight up on the road as an underdog
• The over is 14-27 in Philadelphia Phillies's games on the road after a win
• Philadelphia Phillies is 15-29 ATS after a win

Head-to-Head:

• New York Mets is 4-1 ATS at home vs Philadelphia Phillies
• The over is 1-3 in New York Mets's games on the road vs Philadelphia Phillies
• The over is 3-6 in New York Mets's games vs Philadelphia Phillies