Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
Thursday, September 17, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The over is 2-12 in Philadelphia Phillies’s games on a 3+ game win streak, a stark 2-12 record that translates to a win percentage of 0.143 over a sample size of 14. This trend suggests the run total has been dramatically under‑hit when the Phillies ride a three‑game surge.
Both clubs enter the contest with a single day of rest, and each is navigating a back‑to‑back (b2b) situation. The Mets, despite the grind of consecutive games at home, enjoy the same recuperation window as the Phillies, neutralizing any rest‑based advantage for either side.
On the mound, Nolan McLean carries a 3.037 ERA, a 1.331 WHIP and a 8.944 K/9 for the Mets, while Aaron Nola posts a 3.331 ERA, a 1.383 WHIP and an 8.416 K/9 for Philadelphia. Both starters post comparable numbers, with McLean holding a slight edge in ERA and WHIP, yet Nola’s experience offsets the marginal differences.
There is no pick to recommend; pick.line is null; pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia Phillies | +114 | +1.5 | O 8 |
| NYM New York Mets | -137 | -1.5 | U 8 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia Phillies | +107 | +0.1 | O 8.8 |
| NYM New York Mets | -107 | -0.1 | U 8.8 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Mets has a +0.0 scoring margin edge
- Home court advantage adds 0.3 points for Mets
- Expected scoring: Mets ~4, Phillies ~4 (total ~9)
- Run/puck line pass: model margin below blowout gate
Recent Trends
Mets Trends:
- New York Mets is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
- New York Mets is 2-5 ATS on a 3+ game win streak
- New York Mets is 5-10 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Phillies Trends:
- The over is 2-12 in Philadelphia Phillies's games on a 3+ game win streak
- Philadelphia Phillies is 14-28 ATS on the road after a win
- Philadelphia Phillies is 5-13 straight up on the road as an underdog
- The over is 13-26 in Philadelphia Phillies's games on the road after a win
- Philadelphia Phillies is 14-28 ATS after a win
Head-to-Head:
- New York Mets is 3-0 ATS at home vs Philadelphia Phillies
- The over is 1-3 in New York Mets's games on the road vs Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Mets is 6-3 ATS vs Philadelphia Phillies
Matchup Edges
Mets
Advantages
- Home field advantage worth 0.3 runs in our model
- Elite pitching allowing just 4.6 RPG
- Net scoring margin of +0.0 RPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 69-83 (34-43) (45% win rate)
- Limited offense averaging just 4.6 RPG
- Playing on a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest
- On a 4-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 25% win rate at this venue
Phillies
Advantages
- Stout pitching allowing just 4.3 RPG
- Net scoring margin of +0.0 RPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 48%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 run of home field advantage
- Anemic offense at just 4.3 RPG limits scoring ceiling
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game