New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs
Friday, July 31, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This MLB matchup features New York Yankees (61-48 (26-23)) traveling to take on Chicago Cubs (62-47 (30-22)) at Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois. On paper, these teams are nearly identical in terms of net scoring margin. Games between evenly matched squads tend to come down to execution and in-game adjustments rather than raw talent gaps.
Cubs puts up 4.4 PPG offensively, and the Yankees defense has been giving up 3.8 PPG this season. The numbers suggest Cubs should find scoring opportunities against this opponent. Yankees's 3.9 PPG offense will be tested by a Cubs defense surrendering just 4.4 PPG. The road team may need to manufacture points in transition to keep pace. Interestingly, neither offense has a clear statistical advantage over the opposing defense. This scoring equilibrium points to a game decided by execution in the final minutes.
In MLB, home court is valued at approximately 3.0 points. Cubs will try to feed off that home atmosphere and put early pressure on the visitors. With just a 0.3-run projected margin, this game is about as close as it gets. Small swings in momentum will determine the winner. Within one standard deviation, outcomes range from Cubs losing by 0 to losing by 0, illustrating the range of likely outcomes. This projects as a grind-it-out affair, with both teams averaging around 4 PPG in typical game environments. Low-scoring games compress margins and make covering large spreads harder.
This is one of those games where the oddsmakers have it dialed in. Our model sees no significant spread edge, but secondary markets like the total could still offer a narrow window of value.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY New York Yankees | +130 | +1.5 | O 9 |
| CHC Chicago Cubs | -157 | -1.5 | U 9 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY New York Yankees | +115 | +0.3 | O 8.2 |
| CHC Chicago Cubs | -115 | -0.3 | U 8.2 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Cubs has a +0.0 scoring margin edge
- Home court advantage adds 0.3 points for Cubs
- Expected scoring: Cubs ~4, Yankees ~4 (total ~8)
- Run/puck line pass: model margin below blowout gate
Recent Trends
Cubs Trends:
- Chicago Cubs is 14-1 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- Chicago Cubs is 0-6 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak
- Chicago Cubs is 14-30 ATS at home as a favorite
- Chicago Cubs is 6-14 ATS at home after a loss
- Chicago Cubs is 1-5 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Yankees Trends:
- New York Yankees is 1-5 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak
- New York Yankees is 24-12 straight up on the road after a win
- The over is 2-6 in New York Yankees's games after a loss vs a winning team
- New York Yankees is 24-12 straight up after a win
- The over is 17-32 in New York Yankees's games favorite
Matchup Edges
Cubs
Advantages
- Home field advantage worth 3.0 runs in our model
- Elite pitching allowing just 4.4 RPG
- Net scoring margin of +0.0 RPG per game
Disadvantages
- Limited offense averaging just 4.4 RPG
- Model sees 1.2-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 4.4 RPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Yankees
Advantages
- Stout pitching allowing just 3.8 RPG
- Net scoring margin of +0.0 RPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 47%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 run of home field advantage
- Anemic offense at just 3.9 RPG limits scoring ceiling
- Model win probability of just 47% on the road