Pittsburgh Penguins vs New Jersey Devils

This NHL matchup features Pittsburgh Penguins (40-22-16 (20-12-8)) traveling to take on New Jersey Devils (40-35-3 (20-16-3)) at Prudential Center, Newark, NJ. On paper, these teams are nearly identical in terms of net scoring margin. Games between evenly matched squads tend to come down to execution and in-game adjustments rather than raw talent gaps. Goal-scoring could be a challenge for Devils (2.8 GPG) against Penguins goaltending allowing just 3.1 GA/G. The home team will need to generate high-quality chances to beat this goaltender. On the other side, Penguins's 3.6 GPG offense should find opportunities against Devils goaltending allowing 3.1 GA/G. The visitors won't be shut down easily. In NHL, Home ice is valued at approximately 3.0 goals. Devils will try to feed off that home atmosphere and put early pressure on the visitors. With just a 0.2-goal projected margin, this game is about as close as it gets. Small swings in momentum will determine the winner. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Devils winning by 2 to losing by 3. Our model favors Penguins on the moneyline at -112, projecting a 64% win probability. Hockey's tight margins make the moneyline the sharpest angle in this matchup rather than the puck line.

With a 40-35-3 (20-16-3) record, Devils has been the definition of inconsistent. They've shown they can compete with top teams but have also been vulnerable. Playing at home should help, but they'll need to bring their A-game. Penguins sits at 40-22-16 (20-12-8) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. Look for free throw shooting and second-chance points to be the swing factors in this game. The team that converts at the charity stripe and dominates the glass will have the inside track.